NORMANDY 4 AND THE REAL WAR

The recent meeting of the Normandy Four in Paris had little to do with ending the war in Donbass, but is a quite instructive look at what much of international diplomacy really is - symbolic political theater,  much ado about nothing, the proverbial tempest in the teapot. With infinite patience, the leaders of France, Germany and Russia listened to the jabbering of Volodymyr Zelensky as he tried to re-negotiate and renege on Minsk I, signed by Ukraine in 2014, Minsk II signed by Ukraine in 2015, and the Steinmeier Formula signed by Zelensky himself in October 2019, barely two months ago.

Putin was more than generous with his time, surely knowing that Zelensky and his US and nazi masters had absolutely no intention of any kind of concrete or realistic steps towards actual implementation of the agreement.  Both Minsk Agreements were signed at times when the Ukraine military forces were decimated and facing imminent defeat, therefore signed in acts of desperation, with no real intention of upholding or adhering to the treaty, at least on the ukrop side.

The first Minsk Agreement was September 5th, 2014, when the ukrop army was reeling from defeats all along the Front. According to Poroshenko, at the time of the ceasefire, the ukrop army had lost 60 to 65 percent of all its operational heavy equipment, and around 100 ukrop soldiers were dying daily.

The second agreement, "Minsk II" was signed February 12th, 2015, at a time when a major portion of the ukrop army was surrounded and helpless near Dabaltesve. Though both agreements led to temporary reductions in the fighting, and Minsk II did allow the surrounded ukrop military units to evacuate, the war has continued for over 5 years now, with no real end in sight.

The Steinmeier Formula, first proposed in 2016, is based on Minsk II, and was recently signed by Zelensky and representatives of the Donbass People's Republics on October 1st of 2019, is a plan for peace that encompasses four steps to be taken in a specific, pre-determined and logical order.

1) Elections to be held in DPR and LPR, under Ukrainian law and OSCE observation and verification.
2) Upon OSCE verification of the elections, immediate implementation of special status for Donbass.
3) Amendment of the Ukraine Constitution confirming and codifying the special status of Donbass.
4) Ukrainian control of Russian border crossings in Donbass that are currently not under their control.

The Steinmeier Formula delineates these four steps, in this exact order. That is what Zelensky signed in October, and the recent Normandy Four meeting was for the specific purpose of bringing these steps about. However, the chances of any of this ever actually happening, are, as they say, "wafer thin".

At the recent Normandy Four meeting, Zelensky attempted to basically rewrite the entire agreement, by insisting that Ukraine take control of the border as the first step instead of the last, and by saying there was no way the Constitution of Ukraine could be amended or changed. On this basis, the Steinmeier Formula and the Minsk Agreement are dead in the water. It is as if the Normandy Four met to discuss the purchase of a house and Zelensky showed up trying to sell them a bicycle.

While many of the concrete details of the formula remain unclear, the specific steps and the specific order in which those steps are to be undertaken are beyond question or dispute. And what is also beyond question is the fact that neither the leadership, nor the Armies nor the people of the Donbass Republics will ever allow Kiev to control the border unless and until all of the previous steps have been fully and satisfactorily implemented. Who controls the borders controls the Republics. In the extremely unlikely case that Kiev ever regains control of our borders, it will only be after all other steps have been completed. Zelensky's pretense of making it the first step is an absolute deal-breaker. This will never happen.

Amending the Constitution, the third step in the formula, is also highly problematic and in reality, extremely unlikely to ever be fulfilled. A constitutional amendment allowing the Donbass Republics to vote on special status and codifying that status into the Ukrainian Constitution would de jure allow other regions the same right to decide whether to secede from Kiev's rule. Ukraine is a failed state, and failing further. Kiev is controlled by puppets and criminals who answer to foreign banks and secret services, and who are selling the future and the birthrights of regular Ukrainian people right out from under them as fast as they can. And the Ukrainian people know this. If there were a constitutional amendment allowing referendums of secession or special status, every region of Ukraine would begin the process immediately, and the state of Ukraine would become a new Yugoslavia and simply cease to exist.

Zelensky knows it, his western masters know it, Ukraine's creditors know it. If Ukraine is dissolved, who will get stuck with the unpaid (and unpayable) bills? Why, the creditors, of course. Zelensky is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place, or "forked", as we say in chess. If he amends the constitution, he will de jure and de facto dissolve Ukraine as a nation. If he refuses or fails to, Steinmeier and Minsk are moot, the unwinnable (for Ukraine) war continues, and it's back to square one.

While the Normandy Four may be able to  make some small advancements and improvements, such as prisoner exchanges and even perhaps military de-escalation to some degree, which is admittedly something, and better than nothing, as for its stated purpose of reintegrating the Republics into Ukraine, it is an exercise in futility that will never come to fruition.

So, if Steinmeier and Minsk are moot, what is the alternative? It appears Zelensky and his US/NATO masters still intend to maintain the military option. And indeed, from here in Donbass it continues to appear that this war will not end without one last major battle that will result in the complete destruction of the military power of one side or the other. There are other possible scenarios, including a "frozen war" that can continue almost indefinitely, but the Steinmeier Formula is not among them.

If the Novorussian Armed Forces were to be defeated, the resulting carnage would be reminiscent of the German nazi occupation of 1941 to 1943. Ukrainian nazi politicians and media pundits have already spoken of, and continue to this day to advocate, ethnic cleansing, forced exile, "filtration" and "re-education" camps for Donbass citizens to be located in the nazi strongholds of western Ukraine, or down in the mines of Donbass. Revocation of citizenship and voting rights, confiscation of homes and property and prison terms for military and political defenders are all part of "Plan B", to be carried out immediately after a Ukrainian military victory. And these are only the policies they advocate in public. In reality, it would be genocide. The people of Donbass and our defenders, both here and in Russia, know and understand this, and will never allow it to happen. We may die fighting, defending our families, our homes, our Republics, but we will never, ever surrender. Never. Ever.

"Maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine" is the mantra of fools, mountebanks and hypocrites.
As long as there are nazis in power in Ukraine, as long as there are unpunished war criminals and mass murderers walking around free in Kiev, as long as the Ukrainian Army continues to threaten and attack our Republics and murder our citizens and defenders, no one here will be laying down any arms, no one here will be relinquishing control of any borders or a single centimeter of our land, no one here will allow armed soldiers from Ukraine or UN or OSCE to prowl our streets. This is OUR land now. We have fought for it, we have won it and we will defend it. We have not been defeated in savage combat, and we will not be "pencil whipped" by a clown and errand boy representing foreign masters and enemies. Zelensky decides nothing. He is an insolent and impotent puppet, incapable of agreement or negotiating in good faith.

The people of the Donbass Republics will decide our own fate, just as someday, for better or worse, the people of Ukraine will decide theirs. And when the day finally comes that they rise up against their oligarchs and kleptocrats, their quisling politicians and their foreign masters and exploiters, when the good people of Ukraine rise up and shake off their chains, the fraternal peoples of Donbass and of Russia will applaud them, and stand with them, and be there to help them. And may God speed the day. Davai!