The
situation in Donbass remains tense. Our Army remains strong and
cohesive, ready for whatever comes, but the political situation is in
flux, and highly unstable at the moment. Elections are still scheduled
for November. Since the assassination of Alexander
Zakharchenko ten days ago, military units in the Republics have been on
high alert. Information on reinforcements of the 12,000 strong Ukrainian
Army, along with the openly nazi Azov Battalion as well as NATO
soldiers, instructors and commanders moving into the Mariupol area
are also reasons for serious concern. Provocations by ukrop units all along
the Front continue to escalate, particularly the use of snipers against
front line Novorussian troops and artillery and incendiaries against
civilians in front line areas.
I do not claim
to have any "inside information" other than what I am told by my friends
and comrades who are currently serving at the Front, and that which I
can observe myself firsthand around Donetsk. But the Mariupol build-up
is strange to me for several reasons. First, there is nothing of value,
strategically, militarily or even economically between Mariupol and
Donetsk. There are only two major roads between Mariupol and Donetsk,
and one of them is already in ukrop territory. With the exception of a
few small villages, the area between Mariupol and Donetsk is farmland
and woodlands.
Second, a ukrop attack on
Donetsk from Mariupol would entail a 100 Km advance in the open, along a
single poorly maintained, but certainly well defended (by DPR Army)
road, almost all of which would be within 20 Km of the Russian border.
If Russia were to respond with artillery to this attack, they could wipe
out the entire ukrop assault force without having to actually even
cross the border. (Remember Debaltsevo?) So, in my opinion, the Mariupol
build-up is either a ruse to get the DPR to commit manpower and
resources to defend a few small villages and defensive positions, or a
provocation to try to get the Russians to become openly militarily
involved inside DPR
(So-called "Ukrainian" territory.)
B - Main DPR/RF border crossing at Uspenka
Red Line - Contact line of UAF and LDPR
Grey Line - Russian Border
Gold Lines - Main Roads
Scale - I----------------------I = 50 Km
(Google Maps, used under fair use doctrine)
The
ukrop army holds positions on the very outskirts of all major
Republican cities - Donetsk, Lugansk, Makeevka, Yasynuvata and Gorlovka.
The center of Donetsk city, where I am right now, is less than 10 Km
from ukrop positions, which have also been heavily reinforced over the
previous months. The same goes for the other cities. Why would the
ukrops make a major assault across 100 Km of open country, when, if they
can break through our front line positions, they can literally be in
the center of our major (and strategic) cities in an hour or two?
It
is the US military that controls and directs the Ukrainian Armed
Forces, therefore, the UAF will be used to pursue US strategic goals,
not Ukrainian tactical objectives. The Ukrainian civil war has always
been a proxy war fought by the US against Russia. The main objective has
always been to unite world opinion against Russian "aggression", in
order to justify the continuation and escalation of the economic,
information and military war against Russia by NATO and Western powers.
An attack into the major cities of the Republics will allow the ukrops
to protect themselves from Russian artillery and airstrikes by using the
civilian populations as human shields, even as they begin "cleansing"
and "punishment" operations against these civilians.
Military
operations in urban areas are highly destructive and time consuming,
allowing the US and Ukraine the time to make "humanitarian" appeals for
direct military involvement in Ukraine by NATO or the UN. Russian
intervention against ukrop atrocities will be framed as "aggression"
against Ukraine. As the battles for the cities drag on, the ukrop
einsatzgruppen will be able to round up and exterminate many of those
they see as potential resistance inside the Republics.
I
believe the US/ukrop attack plan will begin with a feigned attack from
Mariupol, which will either draw Russia directly into the war
immediately, or require a military response by DRP forces, which will
put our troops in the open, along the same road, which also happens to
be within range of ukrop artillery. If Russia responds, the ukrop attack
force can withdraw back to defensive positions in Mariupol, as
reserves, and the main offensive will begin against our cities, in which
case proximity to our civilians will afford the attackers some
protection from Russian retribution. If Russia doesn't respond with
artillery strikes from within its own borders or direct military action
inside the Republics, the DPR will be forced to confront the ukrop
assault force using troops and equipment drawn from our already
outnumbered defensive lines. Which again facilitates a ukrop assault
into the hearts of our densely populated cities.
The
obvious tactical solution is an overwhelming preemptive attack by LDPR
and Russian forces prior to the commencement of the ukrop offensive. The
combined forces of Russia and the Republics are capable of eliminating
the festering military threat of the Ukrainian Army in a matter of a few
days, if not hours. But this has grave strategic and political
consequences that are impossible to fully calculate. None the less,
Vladimir Putin has given the people of Donbass his word that "Russia
will always be with you", and as he learned as a kid in the streets of
Leningrad, "If a fight is inevitably, it is better to hit first." The
people of Donbass trust Putin, and we agree.
The
situation in Syria continues to escalate and is headed for either the
final elimination of US-backed ISIS terrorists or a new and much larger
conflagration. The SAA and the Russian air force have ignored the
"warning" by Trump not to attack the final Idlib stronghold of the
terrorists, and the naval stand-off in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea
also continues. Syria and Donbass are both frontline flashpoints in the
same war, and if one is ignited, the other will immediately follow. As
the US actually has zero legal or political right to occupy or attack
Syria or the Russian defenders there, it is reasonable to expect a
military attack in Donbass to precede a confrontation in Syria between
the Western powers and Russia. This will give the West a chance to
attempt to induce world public opinion to support a military
confrontation with Russia in Ukraine and in Syria, with the "Russian aggression" canard.
If
by mistake or intentionally, things in the Syria zone are escalated by
either side, it will be the "GO" signal for the ukrop military assault
on Donbass, thus forcing Russia immediately into a two front war. But I
believe the plan of Ukraine's Western masters is to begin in Donbass as
an excuse to escalate in Syria.
Current DPR intelligence (which is very good) indicates that the ukrop offensive will commence on September 14th. That's
less than one week from today. Mark your calendar, and prepare. It is
by now obvious that Trump is just another fascist tool, willing to start
a world war in order to perpetuate US imperialism, in connivance with
other fascist powers, particularly UK and Israel, along with their NATO
henchmen. It is now too late to hope for any meaningful protest, much
less any actual resistance, from the cowardly and brain-washed
citizens of these regimes. They cannot and will not stop their rogue
masters from starting this war, and it will be left to Russia and its
allies to end it. By whatever means necessary. As goes Syria, so goes
Donbass, and as I have said since 2015, "As goes Donbass, so goes the
world."
In case of a failure of the military option
and a failure to turn world opinion against Russia and towards support
for a world war against Russia, the imperialist regimes are now
executing a "soft power" attack against Putin and the RF in the form of
widespread protests against the Medvedev clique's proposed raising of
the retirement age ("pension reform") in Russia. These protests have led
to street protests and a significant decline in public support for
Putin,
at a crucial time.
This issue is a red herring - as of yet, the retirement age has not
been raised -
The plan would see the
age raised gradually from 60 to 65 for men, and from 55 to 63 for women.
But the mere suggestion of such a plan, based on the economic reality of
a reduced number of workers and a growing number of retirees, has
already caused minor but significant nation-wide protests, led by
western-backed traitors like Alexi Navalny and Igor Girkin, along with
Russian nationalists and even the Russian Communist Party.
That
Navalny and Girkin support the protest should, by itself, be enough to
convince even the most ignorant Russian citizen of its treachery, and it
is a sad and dangerous day when so-called "Russian nationalists" are
too dimwitted to understand that these protests are organized and
encouraged by Russia's worst enemies. That the KPRF (Communist Party of
the Russian Federation) has cynically promoted the protest in order to
attempt to raise it's own insignificant popular support at the expense
of the Putin government is a betrayal not only of Russia but of history
and Communist principles as well.
I
have long considered the KPRF to be an irrelevant and impotent
organization whose internal contradictions, poor leadership and
self-serving opportunism have put the once great Party on the periphery
of Russian politics and left it unworthy of trust or respect. And I say
this as a Communist myself. Rather than these protests gaining any real
political support for the KPRF, their collaboration with traitors like
Navalny and Girkin will, and certainly should, be
the final nail in the coffin of their political stature. These are
"communists" like Gorbachev and Yeltsin, not Communists like Lenin and
Stalin or the Communists of the Red Army who saved and freed Russia and
the world from fascism 75 years ago. Encouraging and promoting this
protest is abject treachery at a time when the Russian Federation and
its future are under siege and in peril, similar to what Russians and
the USSR faced in 1939.
It
is also, on the part of the pensioners affected, nothing better than
self-centered idiocy. They should ask their contemporaries in Libya,
Syria and Ukraine how similar protests, engineered by similar
western-backed traitors turned out. Sowing discord in Russia today will
lead them to enjoy the same retirement that pensioners enjoy in Libya,
and Ukraine.
Perhaps
someone should inform them that today, as they agitate against their
government because of a proposal to raise their retirement age to 63 or
65, in the "wealthy and free" USA, the retirement age is currently 66,
with plans to raise it even higher. They should also be aware that the
social security system in the USA is bankrupt, with no hope of actually
covering the debt owed to people who paid into the fund a portion of
their paychecks for all their working lives. The fund wad looted by Bill
Clinton in the 1990's, transferred to the general fund, where it was
stolen and squandered, and replaced with worthless IOU's. Those in
Russia who join these protests are no better than the fools and traitors
who protested at Maidan in Kiev four years ago, and they fail to
understand that if they continue, they too will suffer the same fate.
It
has been said that the three greatest leaders of the Russian People
were all named "Vladimir". Vladimir the Great, who founded Russia a
thousand years ago, Vladimir Lenin, who founded the Soviet Union one
hundred years ago, and Vladimir Putin who saved modern Russia from the
abyss, about ten years ago. I agree. There is no other person in Russia
who could lead and protect the Russian People better than, or even half
as well, as Vladimir Putin. To agitate against him now, is the most
stupid, treacherous and dangerous thing Russian citizens can do.
And
if the "pension reform" imbroglio is really so important, there is a
reasonable solution, which is already being implemented, and does not
endanger the political stability of the Russian Federation, and will
produce an open, honest and democratic answer to the pension question.
Суть времени,
the Essence of Time Movement in Russia, has already begun collecting
signatures on a petition to put the pension question to a vote in a
nation-wide referendum. What could possibly be more democratic, open and
fair than that? It really is the perfect solution, and should be
supported (and signed!) by every patriotic Russian with any sense at
all.
This petition, thanks to Sergey Kurginyan and
Суть времени,
is already being circulated. If it fails to garner the required number
of signatures, it will prove the pension question is a minor issue, and
the protests are being blown out of proportion by foreign enemies and
domestic traitors to further their own ends, whose goals are to foment
protest and discord in Russia, and actually have nothing to do with the
question of pensions. If it does obtain the required number of
signatures, it will be put to a vote, and all Russians can decide.
Either way, the petition and subsequent possible referendum render all
further protests on the issue moot. Any further protests in the streets,
when a reasonable, effective and peaceful alternative exists, prove
conclusively that anyone participating in those protests, whether
through malice or stupidity or even simply short-sighted self interest,
is a true danger to the future of Russia, in what is already a very
dangerous time. And they should be treated accordingly.
| Joaquin Flores |
| 11:39 AM (4 hours ago) |
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3:42 PM (15 minutes ago)
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3:57 PM (0 minutes ago)
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